Islamist Groups Gain Ground: Understanding the Resurgence

Understanding the Resurgence of Al-Shabaab in Somalia

In recent years, the political landscape in Somalia has drastically shifted, with Islamist militants gaining significant ground once thought to be under control. This resurgence poses critical questions about the causes and implications of Al-Shabaab’s renewed dominance near the nation’s capital, Mogadishu.

The Ebb and Flow of Military Control

Not long ago, Somalia’s government, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, appeared poised to quell the ongoing civil unrest that has plagued the country for two decades. However, despite earlier successes in reclaiming territories from Al-Shabaab, the government’s grip has loosened, allowing the militants to regain positions close to Mogadishu.

Experts like Ulf Terlinden of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung in Nairobi point out that the Somali government’s inability to maintain control is partly due to a failure to establish robust civil governance in these areas. Without visible and effective administration providing essential services like security, education, and healthcare, the legitimacy and relevance of the state remain weak, further fueling militant resurgence.

Moreover, the Somali government seems to have deprioritized the development of local administrative structures in reclaimed territories, an oversight that may have contributed to their inability to sustain control over these regions.

Al-Shabaab’s Financial and Recruitment Strategies

Al-Shabaab’s influence is not only military but also economic. The group reportedly generates substantial revenue—estimates suggest up to $200 million annually—not only from areas they control but also through operations within Mogadishu itself. This funding supports a robust recruitment strategy, offering salaries competitive with local police forces, which is particularly appealing in a country where over half the population lives below the poverty line.

The promise of financial stability is a powerful tool for Al-Shabaab, attracting many young people who face limited economic opportunities. This economic incentive, combined with the group’s deep infiltration of state institutions, complicates efforts to counteract their influence.

Challenges Facing the African Union Mission

The African Union (AU) has been a critical international ally to Somalia’s military efforts against Al-Shabaab since 2007. However, the AU’s mission is gradually winding down, with plans to withdraw by 2029, despite the evident lack of preparedness of the Somali military to take over full security responsibilities.

Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group highlights the precarious future of the AU mission, noting that its continuation is uncertain due to dwindling financial support from its primary benefactor, the European Union. Without new funding sources, the mission’s capacity to assist Somalia is in jeopardy, potentially leaving a vacuum that could be exploited by Al-Shabaab.

Europe’s Stake in Somalia’s Stability

The EU has invested approximately 4.3 billion Euros in Somalia since 2007, driven by concerns over international terrorism and regional piracy that affect global shipping routes through the Gulf of Aden. These security investments reflect the broader implications of instability in Somalia, which has repercussions for international trade and security, particularly concerning the rise in maritime piracy incidents since 2023.

The resurgence of such attacks underscores the ongoing challenges in the region, prompting international efforts to stabilize the country. The potential reduction in AU military support could further complicate these efforts, diminishing Somalia’s defensive capabilities and possibly providing Al-Shabaab with opportunities to strengthen their foothold.