Europe’s Population to Plunge by Nearly 52 Million by 2100: What’s Behind the Decline?

Currently, the European Union is home to approximately 450 million individuals spread across its 27 member countries. However, this number is expected to peak soon due to various demographic changes. According to a recent study by the EU Commission’s Science Hub, the EU population is projected to reach around 453.3 million by 2029 before declining to 398.8 million by the year 2100.

The Aging Challenge

One significant issue highlighted in the research is the aging population within the EU. Predictions suggest that by 2100, the demographic makeup will mirror that of the 1970s, with life expectancy increasing substantially. Women’s life expectancy is expected to rise from an average of 81.5 years in 2024 to 90 years by 2100, while men’s life expectancy is projected to increase to 86 years.

By 2050, about one-third of the EU’s population will be aged 65 and over, up from today’s 20%. The European Commission has pointed out that this demographic shift will pose “significant challenges,” including workforce shortages, tighter budgets, and increased pressure on healthcare and education systems.

Varying Age Structures Across the EU

The age distribution varies significantly among the EU member states. Countries like Bulgaria, Greece, Portugal, and notably Italy, which has a median age of 49.1 years, are experiencing higher average ages. On the other hand, Ireland enjoys a relatively younger demographic with a median age of 39.6 years. The overall median age for the EU was 44.9 years at the beginning of 2025 and is expected to rise to 51.5 years by the century’s end.

Action Needed

EU Commissioner Dubravka Suica has emphasized the need for immediate action to convert these demographic changes into opportunities. “Our societies, economies, and labor markets are transforming due to demographic changes,” Suica stated. She urged that steps be taken to boost productivity and reduce unemployment to mitigate the effects of a shrinking workforce.

Currently, about 20% of Europeans of working age are not employed, nor are they in education or training, totaling around eight million individuals. The report also suggests that while immigration might help mitigate some demographic challenges, it will not wholly resolve the issues associated with an aging population.

All data and figures mentioned, including historical numbers, pertain to the 27 countries currently comprising the EU.