Turkey’s Ambitions in Syria: Unveiling the Impact and Strategic Goals

“Freedom for Rojava,” chants the agitated crowd on Tuesday. Rojava refers to the Kurdish self-administration zone in northeastern Syria. Just a few hundred meters from this zone, on the other side of the Turkish border, hundreds have gathered. The pro-Kurdish DEM Party organized the demonstration.

Tuncer Bakırhan, Co-Chair of the party, addresses the crowd: “Like yesterday, we stand today with the people of Rojava, who are fighting for their honor, their identity, and their language. We stand with our Kurdish siblings there.” Their protest is against the military operations of the Syrian government in Kurdish areas of Syria.

Then the demonstration escalates. Pro-Kurdish demonstrators try to cross into Syria and throw stones at Turkish security forces. They aim to join the Kurdish mobilization in Syria and fight alongside them. With water cannons and tear gas, the police push the demonstrators back.

Autonomy or Central State?

In recent weeks, the internal Syrian conflict has erupted. Since then, government troops have been advancing further into the northeast of the country, killing and displacing Kurdish forces. As of Tuesday evening, a ceasefire agreement is in place, but it seems to be frequently violated.

The background of the conflict is the question of how the Kurds should be integrated into the new Syrian state structure. The Kurds demand autonomy, while the Syrian government wants to control the Kurdish areas. Their goal is to control the entire country as a central state.

In Turkey’s Interest

This is also in line with the interests of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: “First, I would like to emphasize with great satisfaction that the Syrian army has conducted this sensitive operation with the utmost caution at every stage and has acted with almost surgical precision throughout the entire operation to ensure that civilians are not harmed,” Erdoğan explains after a cabinet meeting. The approach is “commendable in every respect.”

As in the past, the Syrian army is said to have received support from the Turkish Air Force, according to Kurdish newspapers. Additionally, Turkey is bolstering its military presence at the border, deploying tanks and transport vehicles.

Turkish troops continue to occupy areas in northern Syria. The regions described by Turkey as a buffer zone are intended to prevent an alleged “terror corridor.” However, the primary goal is to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish state.

Turkish Support also a Domestic Threat

The fact that the Kurds, or the militia alliance Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), are now backed into a corner serves Ankara’s interests. The recent developments have evidently weakened the SDF’s negotiating position, explains Turkish political scientist Sinan Ülgen in an interview with tagesschau.de.

“Therefore, it is expected that the SDF will no longer be an organic structure like the PKK but will join the Syrian army and integrate into it, at least in terms of some of its elements,” says Ülgen. “This is, of course, Turkey’s main goal.”

Yet, Turkish support for Syria’s interim president Ahmed al-Scharaa is also a domestic political risk. The Kurdish-Turkish peace process in Turkey is far from complete. Last May, the banned Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) declared its dissolution and the end of its armed struggle against the Turkish state. Since then, negotiations about peace have been ongoing.

Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process Damaged?

Ahmet Türk from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party sees these negotiations endangered by the military operation in Syria: Turkey still views the Kurds as a potential threat and “is not willing for the Kurds to have a free, just, and equal administration,” says Türk. “We have been observing this for a long time, and it greatly harms the process here.”

For the Turkish government, the geopolitical influence seems to outweigh, at least for the moment. They also want to prevent Israel, which also occupies parts of Syria, from gaining more influence in the region and Syria.

“The alternative expressed by Israel is a weak central government but a looser structure in which the autonomous regions retain power within the constitutional structure of Syria,” says political scientist Ülgen. “Turkey, however, prefers another variant. A strong central government and a constitutional structure that restricts the autonomy of autonomous regions.”

In the race for dominance in Syria, Turkey seems to have initially prevailed.